Carrier's thesis1 is highly improbable. He overstates the similarities between Luke and Josephus, and ignores the possibility that the similarities that do exist could be the result of two historians writing as contemporaries.
Carrier makes several claims in his conclusion. I'll discuss a few of them:
- Luke-Acts was written in the late 1st or early 2nd century
- Luke "almost certainly" knew the works of Josephus
- Luke found his basic historical framework in Josephus and "cut-and-pasted" it into Luke-Acts
- If Luke hadn't read Josephus, "an amazing series of coincidences remains in want of an explanation"
Was Luke-Acts written in the late first or early second century?
This claim is almost certainly true.
A) The dating of the synoptic gospels is too complex to discuss here, but Luke was likely the third gospel to be published. In his preface Luke says he knows of other gospels, and the word-for-word agreement (with occasional editing) between his and the other synoptics indicates that he likely had copies of them available when composing his own gospel.
B) The very earliest Christian writers after the New Testament era—Clement of Rome, Ignatius of Antioch, Polycarp—quote the gospels frequently. But when they do, they always quote/paraphrase Matthew or Mark, or material found in multiple synoptic gospels. Papias, a bishop in Hierapolis in the early second century, is the earliest to name Mark and Matthew as the authors of these two gospels. Irenaeus of Lyons, writing around 180, names all four gospel writers.
So by the late 2nd century Luke's gospel had been circulated as far as France. By examining more evidence, it's possible to narrow the date further, but for the purposes of this question this is enough.
Did Luke know the works of Josephus?
It's hard to say. If Luke was written in the early 2nd century, it's possible he was familiar with Josephus. If Luke was written in the late 1st century, say between 80 and 100 AD, he would have been a contemporary of Josephus. He probably would not have had a copy of The Jewish War and certainly would not have had a copy of Antiquities of the Jews.
Did Luke cut and paste material from Josephus into Acts?
The ancient world had no copyright laws, so copying from another's work would not have had the negative connotations it has today. In fact, we can see examples of this by comparing Luke's gospel with Mark's. I've bolded word-for-word agreement within these passages, and italicized paraphrased material:
Mark 9:2-8 NRSV
Six days later, Jesus took with him Peter and James and John, and led them up a high mountain apart, by themselves. And he was transfigured before them, and his clothes became dazzling white, such as no one on earth could bleach them. And there appeared to them Elijah with Moses, who were talking with Jesus. Then Peter said to Jesus, "Rabbi, it is good for us to be here; let us make three dwellings, one for you, one for Moses, and one for Elijah." He did not know what to say, for they were terrified. Then a cloud overshadowed them, and from the cloud there came a voice, "This is my Son, the Beloved; listen to him!" Suddenly when they looked around, they saw no one with them any more, but only Jesus.
Luke 9:28-36 NRSV
Now about eight days after these sayings Jesus took with him Peter and John and James, and went up on the mountain to pray. And while he was praying, the appearance of his face changed, and his clothes became dazzling white. Suddenly they saw two men, Moses and Elijah, talking to him. They appeared in glory and were speaking of his departure, which he was about to accomplish at Jerusalem. Now Peter and his companions were weighed down with sleep; but since they had stayed awake, they saw his glory and the two men who stood with him. Just as they were leaving him, Peter said to Jesus, "Master, it is good for us to be here; let us make three dwellings, one for you, one for Moses, and one for Elijah"—not knowing what he said. While he was saying this, a cloud came and overshadowed them; and they were terrified as they entered the cloud. Then from the cloud came a voice that said, "This is my Son, my Chosen; listen to him!" When the voice had spoken, Jesus was found alone. And they kept silent and in those days told no one any of the things they had seen.
It seems clear—and virtually all scholars today agree—that Luke knew the gospel of Mark, and used it as one of the sources he mentions in his prologue.
However, if we compare Acts with Josephus regarding other messianic claimants, the correlation just isn't the same. Again I've bolded word-for-word agreement and italicized paraphrases.
Jewish War 2
AND now Archelaus's part of Judea was reduced into a province, and Coponius, one of the equestrian order among the Romans, was sent as a procurator, having the power of [life and] death put into his hands by Caesar. Under his administration it was that a certain Galilean, whose name was Judas, prevailed with his countrymen to revolt, and said they were cowards if they would endure to pay a tax to the Romans and would after God submit to mortal men as their lords. This man was a teacher of a peculiar sect of his own, and was not at all like the rest of those their leaders.
Acts 5:34-37 NRSV
But a Pharisee in the council named Gamaliel, a teacher of the law, respected by all the people, stood up and ordered the men to be put outside for a short time. Then he said to them, "Fellow Israelites, consider carefully what you propose to do to these men. For some time ago Theudas rose up, claiming to be somebody, and a number of men, about four hundred, joined him; but he was killed, and all who followed him were dispersed and disappeared. After him Judas the Galilean rose up at the time of the census and got people to follow him; he also perished, and all who followed him were scattered.
Antiquities of the Jews 20
NOW it came to pass, while Fadus was procurator of Judea, that a certain magician, whose name was Theudas, persuaded a great part of the people to take their effects with them, and follow him to the river Jordan; for he told them he was a prophet, and that he would, by his own command, divide the river, and afford them an easy passage over it; and many were deluded by his words. However, Fadus did not permit them to make any advantage of his wild attempt, but sent a troop of horsemen out against them; who, falling upon them unexpectedly, slew many of them, and took many of them alive. They also took Theudas alive, and cut off his head, and carried it to Jerusalem. This was what befell the Jews in the time of Cuspius Fadus's government.
Acts 5:34-36 NRSV
But a Pharisee in the council named Gamaliel, a teacher of the law, respected by all the people, stood up and ordered the men to be put outside for a short time. Then he said to them, "Fellow Israelites, consider carefully what you propose to do to these men. For some time ago Theudas rose up, claiming to be somebody, and a number of men, about four hundred, joined him; but he was killed, and all who followed him were dispersed and disappeared.
Jewish War 2
But there was an Egyptian false prophet that did the Jews more mischief than the former; for he was a cheat, and pretended to be a prophet also, and got together thirty thousand men that were deluded by him; these he led round about from the wilderness to the mount which was called the Mount of Olives, and was ready to break into Jerusalem by force from that place; and if he could but once conquer the Roman garrison and the people, he intended to domineer over them by the assistance of those guards of his that were to break into the city with him.
Acts 21:37-38 NRSV
Just as Paul was about to be brought into the barracks, he said to the tribune, "May I say something to you?" The tribune replied, "Do you know Greek? Then you are not the Egyptian who recently stirred up a revolt and led the four thousand assassins out into the wilderness?"
Antiquities of the Jews 20
Moreover, there came out of Egypt about this time to Jerusalem one that said he was a prophet, and advised the multitude of the common people to go along with him to the Mount of Olives, as it was called, which lay over against the city, and at the distance of five furlongs. He said further, that he would show them from hence how, at his command, the walls of Jerusalem would fall down; and he promised them that he would procure them an entrance into the city through those walls, when they were fallen down. Now when Felix was informed of these things, he ordered his soldiers to take their weapons, and came against them with a great number of horsemen and footmen from Jerusalem, and attacked the Egyptian and the people that were with him. He also slew four hundred of them, and took two hundred alive. But the Egyptian himself escaped out of the fight, but did not appear any more. And again the robbers stirred up the people to make war with the Romans, and said they ought not to obey them at all; and when any persons would not comply with them, they set fire to their villages, and plundered them.
Acts 21:37-38 NRSV
Just as Paul was about to be brought into the barracks, he said to the tribune, "May I say something to you?" The tribune replied, "Do you know Greek? Then you are not the Egyptian who recently stirred up a revolt and led the four thousand assassins out into the wilderness?"
It's hard to make the case that Luke had read Josephus, after we've seen how Luke works with material that he is familiar with. While Carrier's claim can't be dismissed entirely, a connection between Luke and Josephus does not appear to be likely, and is definitely not "almost certain".
Are similarities between Luke-Acts and Josephus coincidence?
Despite the lack of word-for-word agreement between Luke and Josephus, some similarities do exist, including some not mentioned by Carrier. The Acts passage we looked at above portrays Rabbi Gamaliel, a Pharisee, in a good light. Josephus, in his autobiography speaks highly of a Pharisee, in fact none other than Simon son of Gamaliel.
This is not the only positive treatment of Pharisees in Luke's work. A number of times in Luke's gospel, Jesus is reported to have eaten at the homes of Pharisees (See 7:36 and 11:37). Both Matthew and Mark, in the parallel passages, go to great lengths to omit this information. Luke 13:31 some Pharisees come to Jesus to warn him that Herod wants to kill him.2
According to The image of the Judaeo-Christians in ancient Jewish and Christian literature by Doris Lambers-Petry:
Steve Mason has established that as distinct from the Jewish War, Josephus' later works display a clear sympathy for the Pharisees. A somewhat similar sympathy is found in Luke's works, in roughly the same period. Rather than give in to speculative theories of dependence, we must think of a common setting, which in view of the prominent patrons both authors mention in their dedications apparently had to do with influential circles in Rome. In this setting they both took care to portray the Pharisees and especially their influential representatives in a positive daylight.
If Luke and Josephus were contemporaries, they would have had access to the same sources, thus the appearance of the same characters should not be a surprise. Therefore Carrier is probably right that any similarities are not a coincidence. But the very different way the two authors treat these characters suggests that they were probably not familiar with each other's work.
1 Steve Mason begins his chapter on Josephus and Luke-Acts by acknowledging, regarding the notions that Luke borrowed from Josephus or that Josephus borrowed from Luke, "Neither position has much of a following today, because of the significant differences between the two works in their accounts of the same events." (Josephus and the New Testament, p. 251) But after reviewing the breadth of events mentioned in both Josephus and Luke, and noting that no other writings from the first century even come close to covering all these events, Mason concludes, "I find it easier to believe that Luke knew something of Josephus' work than that he independently arrived at these points of agreement. Nevertheless, further study may provide alternatives." (p. 293) Mason also concedes that the dating is a bit tricky, since most scholars consider Luke-Acts to have been written before Josephus' Antiquities of the Jews. In response Mason suggests, "Luke may have heard an earlier version or only a part of the work recited, perhaps in 90 or so." (p. 293) But even this pushes Luke to the very late end of the range considered by mainstream scholars today. Ultimately, Mason's conclusion exhibits a much greater uncertainty than Carrier's summary admits.
2 John's gospel, almost universally agreed to be the last written, also contains a positive story about a Pharisee, Nicodemus, who came to Jesus at night for instruction. A fragment of John's gospel has been found which dates to about 125 AD, which virtually forces us to date the original in the first century. This adds support to the positive-mention-of-Pharisees-in-the-late-first-century hypothesis.