A simplified literary structure of Dan 9:24-27 looks something like this:

70 weeks are determined for

A: Your people [2 word phrase]

. B: Your Holy City [3 word phrase]

A: Finish the-transgression, end sin, expiate iniquity [2 word phrases]

. . B: Introduce eternal righteousness, seal vision & prophecy, anoint most holy [3 word phrases]

A: From the decree to restore and rebuild Jerusalem till Messiah – 7 weeks + 62 weeks

. . B: Rebuilt in times of trouble

A: After 62 weeks Messiah cut off and will have nothing

. . B: People of prince destroy city & sanctuary, end like a flood, war & desolations

A: He confirms covenant with many for 1 week, cut off mid-week & stops sacrifice & offering

. . B: On the wing will come abomination that makes desolate until the end

The prophecy of Dan 9:24-27 is clearly a dual prophecy about two related but distinct matters: “Your people” (the Messiah especially), and, “Your Holy City”, Jerusalem. The two prophecies are combined into an ingenious literary unit which complement each other but are always held in apposition. More commentators have come to grief on this issue than any other by ascribing aspects of one to the other.

The key to understanding is found in the first verse of the passage: “your people” is two words, and, “your holy city” is three words in the Hebrew. The destiny of these two entities is described by a list of six things, the first three of which use two-word phrases and refer to “your people”, and the last three use three-word phrases and refer to “your holy city”. See above. The remainder of this dual prophecy follows this distinction.

Now, examine the literary structure and observe that all the time elements apply exclusively to “your people” (or actually, Messiah who represented them and us), and that no time element is ever applied to the destiny of “your holy city.” Again, elaborate (but wrong) chronologies have been erected on the assumption that the city of Jerusalem had a timetable regulated by some aspects of the 70 weeks – but the prophecy does not say this. In fact, the rebuilding of the Jerusalem and the temple were started in 536 BC, well before the beginning of the 490 years and lasted until (almost) 70 AD, well after the end of the 490 years.

As described above, Dan 9:24-27 describes five dates, four of which are given significance in the prophecy. These four dates are discussed below.

The Beginning: The issuing of the command to restore and rebuild Jerusalem. Several decrees issued by Persian kings are listed in Ezra but only one of these, Ezra 7, is directed at rebuilding Jerusalem, and restoring its political independence. [The other decrees were only intended to re-establish the temple.] This decree is precisely dated as being, according to Ezra’s reckoning, in the 7th year of Artaxerxes. Now it is clear that Ezra and Nehemiah used a calendar similar to that used in the Australian financial year, one that started in the seventh month. That is, for example, in any given civil year, since the seventh month marked the year’s beginning, the first and second month came after the seventh. Examine Neh 1:1-4 and 2:1 for an example of this – the first month of Nissan came after the ninth month of Kislev in the 20th year of the King. Next, when a king ascended the throne part way through a year, the first incomplete calendar year of his reign was regarded as his accession year; his first year of reign was counted as beginning on the next New Year’s Day. Thus, Artaxerxes ascended the Persian throne in about Jan 464 BC, but the first year of his reign began about Sep 464 BC. Therefore, the fifth month in his seventh year would be about July/August 457 BC. See appendix 1 below for more details.

Messiah Anointed: The seventy-week period is divided into three contiguous parts, seven weeks, 62 weeks and the final week (Dan 9:25, 27), in that order. The Hebrew, “messiah” and the Greek, “christos”, both mean the anointed one. The beginning of Jesus’ ministry was marked by His baptism, which, according to Luke 3:1 occurred in the 15th year of the reign of Tiberius Caesar. Unlike the Persian calendar, the Jews in New Testament times used the non-accession year dating, or inclusive reckoning. This means that when a monarch ascended the throne, the first incomplete calendar year (no matter how small) was counted as the first year. Since Tiberius ascended the imperial throne on 19 August 14 AD, his “fifteenth year” would be the twelve months beginning 1 Ethanim (September/October) 27 AD by the non-accession reckoning of the Jews. Since Jesus’ ministry lasted 3½ years according to the Gospel’s record (see below for this date), Jesus’ Baptism occurred about October/November, 27 AD.

Thus, we find the beginning of the final week of the 70 weeks when Messiah would “confirm covenant with many for one week”, namely, 27 AD. This suggests that it was the official transition from the “Old Covenant” to the “New Covenant” as promised in Jer 31:31-34 and fulfilled in Matt 26:28, Mark 14:24, Luke 22:20, 1 Cor 11:25 by Jesus.

Messiah Cut-off: Daniel’s prophecy also records that in the midst of the 70th week, Messiah would be (a) cut-off, and (b) end sacrifice and offering. Jesus’ death in 14th of Nissan, 31 AD fulfils this exactly. This can be confirmed using the usual dating systems by finding a year in the range 30 AD to 33AD in which the Jewish Passover fell on Friday. Since we do not have definitive and precise information about the Jewish calendar (specifically the occurrence of “leap years” with the second Adar), such methods depend more on what is unknown than known. Even astronomical methods cannot help because they depend upon local meteorological conditions such as cloud obscuring a new moon. However, the overwhelming consensus from such methods, despite their limitations suggests that the crucifixion must have occurred during the Passover in Nisan (March/April), either in March, 30 AD, or, April, 31 AD. The former is too early as already shown (Jesus’ ministry lasted more than 2½ years), but the second accords with the known facts. See appendix 2 below for more details.

70 Weeks Ended: The end of the 70 weeks would mark the close of Jewish probation, or more precisely, the end of the Jews’ status as the chosen people. After that, the Christian church was called and the Covenant established with “New” people (Heb 8:8, Matt 21:43), based on the ancient promises, and established by Jesus blood of the New Covenant. Again, the historian Luke records the facts of what happened in 34 AD.

• Acts 7:51, 57, 58: Stephen stoned, Jews (at least the leaders) reject Jesus as Messiah, finally. Stephen recognises that Jesus is now in the heavenly sanctuary, Acts 7:48, 49, 55, 56, seated at the right hand of God.
• Acts 8:1: Church scattered from Jerusalem
• Acts 8:26, 27: First missionary to gentiles, Philip & the Ethiopian
• Acts 9:11, 12, 15: Paul the apostle to gentiles is called and appointed
• Acts 10:11, 12: Peter’s vision to go to the gentiles
• Acts 11:17, 18, 26: Gentiles become Christians and called such
• Acts 11:19-21: Church headquarters moved from Jerusalem to Antioch

Thus, each of the time elements in the prophecy, as documented in the four dates, was fulfilled exactly and completely.

APPENDIX 1 - Original Sources for the Start date

The dating of kings with their associated chronologies is very well established for the period of about 750 BC to 100 AD, often to the precise day. Multiple original sources can be used to verify these dates:

1. Olympiad Dates: These lists from ancient Greece and Rome traced reigning kings via the 4 yearly cycles of “Olympiads”. Several such lists are available from Xenophon, Thucydides, Plutarch and Julius Afrikanus.
2. Ptolemy’s Canon: The great Greek astronomer, mathematician, geographer and astrologer, Claudius Ptolemy (100 – 170 AD) created a very famous and accurate list of kings and their reigns beginning with Nabonassar (747 BC, Babylon) up to Aelius Antonius (160 AD, Rome).
3. Elephantine Papyrus: The Island of Elephantine in Aswan, Egypt, had a significant Jewish settlement and these people have left a huge trove of documents most of which have been double or triple dated with Babylonian, Persian and other kings in both the Babylonian-Persian luni-solar calendar and the Egyptian Solar calendar.
4. Babylonian Cuneiform Tablets: This large group of documents provides lists of kings who ruled in the area from 626 BC to 75 AD.
5. General archaeology: Numerous letters, coins, inscriptions and other varied documents all confirm the chronological data above.
6. Astronomical records: There are numerous records of calculable astronomical events such as eclipses in the reigns of Nebuchadnezzar and other kings that fix their chronologies beyond doubt.

Thus, we can be quite confident that Cyrus began his reign in October 539 BC, and that his first regnal year began in September 538 BC. Using these same sources, Sir Isaac Newton correctly observed in his “Observations Upon the Prophecies of Daniel” (page 131):

“Now the years of this Artaxerxes began about two or three months after the summer solstice, and his seventh year fell in with the third year of the eighteenth Olympiad; and the latter part thereof, wherein Ezra went up to Jerusalem, was in the Julian Period 4257” [= 457BC]

APPENDIX - Jesus' Crucifixion Date

There is further evidence of this date of 31 AD for Jesus' Crucifixion. Luke also records that Jesus was baptized when He was “about 30 years old” (Luke 3:23). While the exact date of Jesus’ birth is unknown, there is a narrow range from which to choose. It was after the Caesar Augustus’ census of 8 BC which took several years to complete. And, it was before Herod’s death in April 4 BC. Since shepherds were in the fields, Jesus must have been born before Nov 5 BC and probably about Sep/Oct 5 BC. In Oct 27 AD, He would have been 31 years old, or “about 30 years old”. Later dates suggested by some would stretch the meaning of Luke’s age too far.

Despite the insuperable difficulties in knowing the local calendar of 2000 years ago, there are still a very limited range of possible dates from which to choose. If we accept that Jesus died on the afternoon of Friday, 14th of Nisan, then the first of Nisan must be at sunset on Friday, about 18:00 local time. In the years 30-33, there are only two years that are even possible when such a Friday occurs two weeks after the equinox, namely,

1. 30 AD when New Moon occurs at 20:07, Wed, Mar 22 local time. Thus, Nisan 1 would begin about 1 day and 22 hours later on Mar 24. This accords with the Babylonian calendar (not used in Jerusalem) but such an event is almost too soon in date and too soon after sunset to be reliably seen.
2. 31 AD when New Moon occurs at 13:53, Tues, Apr 10 local time. Thus, Nisan 1 would begin about 3 days and 4 hours later on Apr 17. This is more credible.